taleb, Black swan을 만나지 않기 위해서는

오늘 아침에는 kramer 덕분에 Nasim Taleb이 퐈낸셜 탐즈에 올린 Ten principles for a Black swan-proof world를 감상했다.

평소 '00대에 해야 할 00가지 일들' '성공허기 위한 00대 법칙'등은 원숭이 사육헐 때나 들어맞는 것인지라

이런류의 제목은 별로 달갑게 보질 않는데....

 

역쉬 Taleb이다. 

 

1. What is fragile shoud break early while it is still small.

2. No psocialisation of losses and privatisation og gains

   (We have managed to combine the worst of socialism and capitalism)

3. it's irresponsible and foolish tp put our trust in the ability of such  experts to get us out of this mess. 

4. Don't let someone making an incentive bonus manage a nuclear plant or your financial risks(no incentives without disincentives)

5. Counter balance complexity with simplicity (Equity bubbles proved to be mild; debt bubbles vicious)

6. Complex derivatives needs to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it)

7. Simply, We need to be in a position to shrug off rumors,  be robust in the face of them.

8. Don't give an addict drugs more if they has withdrawal pains.

9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible expert advice for their retirement.

   (Economic life should be definancialized)

10.Teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties (Shutting down the Nobel economics)

 

   Then we will see an economic life close to our biological environments: Smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage.

 A world in which entrepreners, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die everyday without making the news.